Lecture Overview:

First of all, are economic fluctuations, also called business cycles, inevitable? Many economists say yes. I say no. They are man-made and can be avoided. Unfortunately the institution that creates business cycles, unemployment, and inflation is in charge of the economy. That institution is our banking system headed by the Federal Reserve.

In the 19th century, the U.S. economy had less problems with inflation. In fact it was a century of deflation. Prices came down, real wages increased, and the cost of living as the economy expanded decreased. People needed less money to maintain their standard of living!

But the printing of money in the 20th century until now has changed our economic consequences. The 20th century to now has been the century of inflation and enormous debt. Why? We will see in my lecture.

Link to Document Used in this Lecture:

Economic Fluctuations, Unemployment, and Inflation PowerPoint Presentation

Link to Video Lecture:

Watch the lecture on Economic Fluctuations, Unemployment and Inflation

Recording Menu:

This video is a little over one hour long. This is one of the longer chapters in the course. I also have added more information that what is in the chapter.

Below is a menu that lists the topics and the time they are discussed on the video. Use your horizontal lever while watching the video to move to the topic you wish to review.

Time: Topic:

01:00 Business Cycles
04:41 Business Cycle Theories: Endogenous and Exogenous Theories
08:20 Business Cycle Forecasting: The Ten Leading Economic Indicators
11:46 Unemployment
16:38 Unemployment as a Lagging Indicator
17:10 Types of Unemployment: Frictional, Structural, Cyclical, & Seasonal
18:57 The Natural Unemployment Rate
19:14 Why the Natural Unemployment Rate is Falling
19:51 Inflation
20:33 Deflation
22:09 Stagflation
24:29 The Misery Index
24:54 Hyperinflation
26:58 The Inflation Rate is Underestimated
30:31 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and an Exercise on how to Calculate it
35:39 The CPI and Inflation Rate
37:45 Calculating the Percentage Change in the Price Level Using the CPI
38:58 The Chapman Index: Alternative Measurement of Inflation
40:32 ShadowStats.com: Alternative Measurement of Inflation
41:20 Unanticipated Inflation's Effect on Debt
42:28 Unanticipated Deflation's Effect on Debt
44:17 Nominal and Real Interest Rates
49:58 Nominal Wages and Real Wage Calculations for Inflation and Deflation
52:05 Nominal and Real Wages Using Percentage Changes
55:38 Nominal and Real Wages Since 1964 to 2018
56:56 Price Level Changes in the 19th Century after the Civil War: Mostly Deflation
58:53 20th Century Price Levels
59:55 Big Mac Hamburger: Devalued Dollar
101:04 Phillips Curve